A Datafolha survey recently released shows that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads voting intentions with 41% against 22% of former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) in a first-round scenario in the 2026 elections, without the candidacy of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). In a second-round simulation, Lula maintains the lead with 48% of voting intentions, against 43% for Michelle. This research heard from 2,004 people between May 20th and 22nd, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. The registration with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is BR-00290/2026.
This survey is the first to show the impact of conversations between Flávio Bolsonaro and banker Daniel Vorcaro, from Master Bank. The absence of Flávio Bolsonaro in this scenario may impact the strategies of parties, especially the Liberal Party (PL), which may be evaluating the best option to represent the right in the elections. The survey also indicates that Michelle Bolsonaro performs similarly to Flávio in a second-round scenario against Lula, with 43% and 44% respectively.
The electoral dynamic is still subject to changes, especially with the possibility of new candidatures and alliances. Michelle Bolsonaro’s performance may be influenced by her trajectory as a former first lady and eventual marketing and communication strategies. On the other hand, Lula counts on his experience and consolidated support base. The second-round scenario suggests a tight dispute if Lula and Michelle are the candidates. Lula’s leadership in the first round may be an indicative of his popularity and acceptance among voters.
The Datafolha survey reflects the current political scenario, with Lula and Michelle leading voting intentions. Other factors, such as the economy, health, and security, may influence voters’ decisions. The electoral race still has much to be defined, with scenarios that may change over time.